研究预测中国08年奥运胜算
由Wiley-Blackwell发表在《太平洋经济观察》杂志中的一篇研究文章预测，中国会在北京2008奥运会上夺取比与2004年的144块奖牌至少多14%的奖牌——其奖牌总数与美国之间的差距大大缩小。来源于欧洲科研新闻网站Alphagalileo：
[url]http://www.alphagalileo.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=readrelease&releaseid=527345[/url] [font=Verdana][b]Do Wealthier Countries Win More Olympic Medals? Study Predicts China's 2008 Wins[/b][/font]
A study published by Wiley-Blackwell in the Pacific Economic Review predicts that China will win at least 14% more medals in the 2008 Beijing Olympics – in comparison to the 144 medals won in 2004 – and narrow its medal-tally gap with the USA significantly.
The study also notes that China will still not be able to top the league and remain second behind the USA, and goes on to speculate that Japan and South Korea will win considerably fewer medals in 2008, compared to their 2004 yield.
Lead author of the study “Men, Money, and Medals: An Econometric Analysis of the Olympic Games”, Associate Professor Lui Hon-Kwong – from the Department of Marketing & International Business at Lingnan University in Hong Kong – said, “This study goes beyond casual observations that large and wealthy countries will perform well in international sporting events, and attempts to ascertain the effects of population size and income per capita on the number of medals won.”
The results of the study show that population and income do indeed have a substantial effect on the number of Olympic medals won. And despite controlling these two major determinants, strong country-specific effects in Olympic medal results still remain – supporting the belief that a country or individual’s performance in sport is, to a certain extent, dependent on the amount of resources available – hence the trend of large and wealthy countries performing better in international sporting events.
Professor Lui added, “Contrary to the popular perception that Asians are not very good at sport, the results of this study show that Asian countries do display sports prowess.”
However, the study notes that while the USA and China tend to outperform other countries relative to their size and income, other countries like the ‘Three Asian Dragons’ – Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan – still under-perform despite their strong economic performances. 田麦久上次来讲学已经预测了，估计是44块金牌左右。 这个预测有点恐怖！
看来我们就要争第一了，哈哈！ 希望东道主的优势不要用过了,特别是评分项目!
普华永道预测奥运奖牌榜 中国88枚奖牌首次登顶
中新网6月23日电 据美联社报道，根据全球著名的会计公司普华永道本周一公布的一份调查显示，在北京奥运会上，中国代表团将以88枚奖牌——领先第二名美国代表团一枚奖牌的优势，首次获得奖牌榜总数第一。这份报告的作者约翰·豪克沃斯说:“中国是这届奥运会的主办国，加之中国的经济自2004年以来发展势头强劲，所以，根据我们模型的显示，本届奥运会上，中国队奖牌总数将为88枚，远远超过雅典奥运会的63枚和悉尼奥运会的59枚。”
2004年雅典奥运会，中国位列奖牌榜第三。第一名为美国(102)，第二名为俄罗斯(92)。中国以32枚金牌列金牌榜第二，第一名美国以36枚金牌居首位。
豪克沃斯预测，即将到来的北京奥运会上，俄罗斯的奖牌总数将为79枚，下降到奖牌榜第三，随后依次是德国(43)，澳大利亚(41)，日本(34)，法国(30)，意大利(29)，英国(28)，韩国(27)。
研究报告中，例举了自1988年以来，影响一个国家在奥运会表现的场外因素，包括人口，平均收入，东道主的优势。豪克沃斯说:“研究结果是，举办国的大小有些重要，但这不是全部。有时，大卫在体育馆里可以杀死歌利亚。”
根据豪克沃斯的预测，在雅典仅获得一枚银牌的印度代表团，将在北京获得6枚奖牌。对此，豪克沃斯说:“除了曲棍球，印度所擅长的体育运动都不在奥运会之列，最明显的比如板球。”
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我感觉金牌总数应该是64枚
银牌总数应该是83枚
铜牌总数应该是117枚
回复 9# z198182 的帖子
你咋预测这么精确呢?难道找你彩排过?呵呵这样的好贴啥没人顶呢
这样的好贴啥没人顶呢,沙发我坐,赞扬老陪一下![url=http://www.helloreplica.com/]Replica Watches[/url] [url=http://www.helloreplica.com/]Replica Rolex Watches[/url] [url=http://www.helloreplica.com/]Rolex Watches[/url] [url=http://www.helloreplica.com/]Swiss Watches[/url] [url=http://www.helloreplica.com/]Breitling Watches[/url] 我们应该去争第一。
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